Biggest US misconception about fighting terror coming from Arab sources is that increased aid to their countries will help. It isn't a money issue to them. It's a human rights and justice for the Palestinian people issue and the perception that the US doesn't use its clout with Israel to force a settlement that is fair to Palestinians. I don't know how many times Americans need to hear that the world doesn't think we are fair and even-handed in our dealings with Arabs esp. viz. Palestine.

Money won't change anything.

People don't become terrorists because they don't have the option of going to business school and living a decent middle class family life. Many of the 911 hijackers were comfortable middle class Arabs, some of them had families! They become terrorists because they are persuaded that their deaths will mean something important to obtaining justice for their people.

Gimme a D!

Gimme a U!

Gimme a H!

What do you got ?

DUH!!!

Second major misconception - failure to learn from history. The French fought superhard in Algeria to defeat Arab nationalism using every military and torture weapon at their disposal. They lost eventually. Same for the Israelis vs. the PLO. Same for the Russians in Chechnya. You can't kill nationalism with a gun. This is a pan-Arab Islamic nationalist uprising with a coherent and appealing ideology offering thousands if not millions of Moslems a source of identity and political pride.

Not only can it not be bought or killed off completely, it can't be directly negotiated with either! This is a total nightmare for US policymakers because it threatens their client regimes in Egypt and Saudi and Pakistan. The harder we try to hit al Qaida and kill collateral people in the process, the stronger we make them. This is the essence of the al Qaida grand strategy.

The only thing that will stem the drift of animosity in the Arab world against the US is having more popular legitimate governments in Cairo and Riyadh. Riyadh is our best oil-producing friend that is also our own worst enemy at the same time. They hold on to power by supporting and tolerating support for extreme anti-US ideologies. Hatred of the US by strange political alchemy deflects pressure on the Royal House of Saud for real domestic reform.

Our best bet is to cut our unpopular Arab government friends some slack in the short run by holding Israel to its committments to dismantle their settlements and get serious about making the hard sacrifices it will take to come to having a Palestine existing next to them with its capital in Jerusalem also. This will have te effect of making the US look heroic in Arab eyes plus its something that is going to have to happen sooner or later anyhow. The Israelis know they have to give it up. They are just pissed cause they can't have their cake and eat it too and are currently avoiding the domestic turmoil of saying admitting they made a very costly mistake building the settlements.

So to look in my crystal ball with these factors in mind and tracking the current trajectory of US anti-terror policy which is long on explosives and short on diplomatic finesse, I'd say in one year we will have experienced an undetermined number of new casualties and be no closer to finishing al Qaida whether or not we catch Osama.

It's *NOT* the Economy Stupid!